Numerical Modeling of Tsunami Waves Associated With Worst Earthquake Scenarios of the Makran Subduction Zone in the Jask Port, Iran

The recent studies show that the past researches may have significantly underestimated earthquake and tsunami hazard in the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ) and this region is potentially capable of producing major earthquakes. In this study, the worst case possible earthquake scenarios of the MSZ are simulated using fully nonlinear boussinesq model to investigate tsunami hazards on the Jask Port, one of the most important southern coastal areas of Iran. The 9.1Mw and 8.7Mw earthquakes which respectively, represent the rupture of about full and half length of the MSZ plate boundary, have been considered in the modeling. The global and local numerical simulation were conducted based on 1-minute and 3-arc sec resolution bathymetry data, respectively, in order to capture tsunami generation, propagation and inundation at the Jask Port. Results show the water subsidence is firstly obsereved along the Jask Port coastlines just after the earthquake occurrence, which can alert residents as a natural warning sign. Model results also reveal that due to the 9.1Mw earthquake and the 8.7Mw western Makran earthquake, the most coastal areas around the Jask Port are inundated by tsunami waves. However, the tsunami run-up is not observed when the 8.7Mw earthquake occurs at the eastern segment of the MSZ because the tsunami waves almost propagate in the north-south direction, perpendicular to the Makran fault and it causes a little effect of the tsunami attack on the western coast of Makran. Therefore, the most crucial factor that determines the tsunami risk at the Jask Port is the location of earthquake focal points in the Makran region.